Java's Spiral Into Extinction - Can Open Source Stop It?

The single feed from java.blogs that caught my attention today was this title:

Sun Microsystems to Cut 6000 Jobs.

Layoffs are no longer news nowadays, and yet nothing prepares you for it. While it was pretty evident that something had to be done from the losses it got from two of the last three quarters, bystanders like us never thought the solution would be this catastrophic. This gets bloggers like me, who well... blog about Java, wondering: will I be blogging about Java months from now? One solution to what seems to be an imminent disaster, as the extinction of one of the most celebrated platform in the history of computing, might well be just right beside it.

Sun CEO Jonathan Schwartz's contention that users will be inclined to realign their business solutions toward open source products such as MySQL, OpenSolaris, and GlassFish might be logical as the world braces itself for the worst that this global economic crisis has to offer.

But is open source really the solution? or is there an impending doom that looms over it as well? Some sectors believe that the current crisis will push experts to put a price tag over their hard work as opposed to giving it for free. When a hungry unemployed developer comes across a brilliant idea, it would be difficult for him to turn away from the instant gratification of charging a fee to parties who would be interested with it. Sharing it out in the open for free with the hopes of getting some good returns through services can just be too speculative at best, and speculation definitely isn't one of the marketable words in the world today.

This brings us back to the future of Java.

I'm no economic expert nor am I a software guru but here's what I smell brewing as I prepare my next cup.

Java is just so widespread: desktops, mobile devices, servers, car consoles, smart cards, etc, that it would be difficult to imagine that the companies making use of this platform would just dump it in the near future. The tides of these times spell out one word: uncertainty. With this in mind, trying out something new, i.e., replacing your current technology with something that is unproven can be nothing short of suicidal. So if the question is: Is Java going to spiral into extinction in the midst of this economic crisis?

The answer is no. At least not during the economic crisis, that is.

While Java will pretty much stay alive, I don’t think that’s all we’d like it to do… just to stay alive. We’d love to have it LIVELY again, like Duke turning cartwheels again perhaps?

But that’s easier said than done especially with an organization running with a 6000-less workforce.

So where do you get reinforcements? They’re out there on the open source community. But that brings us back to the argument some paragraphs back: will there be an army in the open source community to count on? Won’t these individuals turn their backs on the idea of contributing to a common cause in order to secure their own future?

The answer to that again is… no.

They won’t charge a fee because no one’s going to be willing to pay. These are uncertain times, remember? So the open source community will still be there, army and all. The economic crisis will not eliminate open source projects. Human beings are well known for their ability to survive, and the successful stories of survival usually ended that way because the survivors put their brains together without expecting anything in return…

except simply to survive.


Time for me to take my first sip as my cup is getting cold.